On the World Cup the tracks are the same year after year. Even the positioning of gates on those courses doesn't deviate much. Veteran racers have a huge advantage on the traditional World Cup venues.
Due to covid-19 scheduled test events that were supposed to take place last year and in 2020 had to be canceled. None of the racers and coaches had seen the venue before last week. As such, this Olympic downhill levels the playing field and represents a unique opportunity for less experienced racers.
Course Info
The course is situated in the Xiaohaituo Mountain Area in northwest Yanqing about 100km northwest of Beijing in the Yanqing District which is sandwiched between the Yellow Sea and the Gobi Desert.
Course Name: Rock
Course Designer: Swiss legend Bernhard Russi
Start Altitude: 2,179m / 7,149 ft
Finish Altitude: 1,285m /4,216 ft
Vertical Drop: 894m/ 2933 ft
Weather
The winter climate of the region during winter is dominated by semi-permanent high pressure centered over interior Asia. The wintertime climate of Beijing is quite dry. In February, the average precipitation (water equivalent) in Beijing is only 0.19", roughly equivalent to 3 inches of snow. This means Beijing is the first Winter Olympics to rely entirely on man-made snow. In a way this is not a bad setup for ski racing, but there's a catch...just as in PyeongChang, wind!
Course Characteristics/Who Does It Favor?
There are two critical sections. On top we have the right footed turn that takes skiers onto the saddle jump. The gate underneath is blind and many skiers have had major problems finding direction and several racers have DNF'd. On the bottom it's the banked right footer at the bottom of Haituo Bowl. This turn gives you racers the speed they'll take onto the course's primary gliding section and down to the finish line.
The Rock course favors the super-g skier over the pure downhiller. Because of the unique terrain and dry climate the track is in a rather narrow corridor. There aren't any big sweeping classic downhill turns. There's not a huge amount of gliding. Less than any of the World Cup tracks save Bormio.
But perhaps most importantly, the course favors super-g skiers because it's new. The racers don't have time to get mileage on this track. They're going to have to rely on super-g skills, the ability to identify the fast line and execute that line at race speed.
The winning time should be right around 1 minute and 43 seconds a relatively short downhill and shorter than all the World Cup downhills except Beaver Creek. In the second training run a whopping twenty-two athletes finished within one second of the fastest racer (Kilde).
The Favorites
Aleksander Aamodt Kilde - Won the second training run and has won 3 of 8 DHs on the World Cup this season and is the only man to have won more than one. Kilde has never finished in the top 10 in seven Olympic games starts. As an athlete with 3 super-g wins this season and six for his career, this is a course that plays to his strengths. He was one of only three racers to start the third training run, and the only one to finish. Given how little mileage the field has on this track, that seems like a pretty significant advantage.
Beat Feuz - This course doesn't seem to be a great fit. Feuz might be the premier glider on the World Cup (at least pound-for-pound). He's also has great touch on the snow. Feuz is coming off a win a Hahnenkamm victory in Kitzbühel. He's also a big game skier and has two medals(DH 3rd, SG 2nd both in '18) in five Olympic starts. But, he's still looking for his first gold.
Dominik Paris - 5th in the second training run and fast on the top and bottom. He wasn't good in
the saddle jump section (only 40th fastest). Paris was 4th in the PyeongChang DH four years ago.
Vincent Kriechmayr - Was 15th in training run two. This seems like a course that should suit him, but he hasn't looked comfortable yet. He was one DH victory on the World Cup this season (Wengen). He was top 10 in both SG and DH in PyeongChang and was double gold medalist in the speed events at World Championships last year in Cortina.
Marco Odermatt - Excellent SG skier. Has never won a World Cup downhill. Hasn't been fast in training (38th in DH training #2).
Matthias Mayer - The course doesn't seem to agree with him. He's missed the second gate in two of the three training runs. The extra training run couldn't have helped his confidence and in that sense may have done him more harm than good. Mayer has one gold at each of the last two Olympics(DH & SG).
Don't Sleep On
The Canadians - Crawford won the first training run and was 11th in the second although he did miss a gate. Broderick Thompson was 3rd in the second training.
Adur Etxezarreta - He's been 2nd and 7th in training (although he missed a gate in each run) and has looked aggressive and confident.
Are There Any Americans?
Travis Ganong was 18th in the second training but only 0.88 out. To me he's looked the most comfortable and seems to have a super positive attitude about the course. On the other hand, RCS has looked out of sorts and that unfortunately continues a trend that we've seen since Bormio. He just doesn't seem confident on the new equipment yet. Not a great draw for Bryce Bennett going bib 1.
Miscellaneous
Unfortunately Kjetil Jansrud doesn't look remotely ready. He was 46th, 3.76 seconds out in the second training. He's skiing with a huge knee brace and just doesn't look recovered or comfortable. I hope this isn't his last DH.
Kilde is trying to make it back-to-back downhill golds for Norway (Svindal won in '18).
Kilde would be only the third Norwegian man to win DH gold.
Only six nations have won DH gold.
Dominik Paris is trying to become the first Italian to win the Olympic DH since Zeno Colo in 1952.
Austria have won more men's Olympic DHs than any other nation (7). France are second with (5).
February 7th is the 50 year anniversary of Bernard Russi's DH win in Sapporo '72.
Predictions
The golfer Jack Nicklaus often said the majors are the easiest golf tournaments to win for a variety of reason. If you look at Olympic ski racing it's tempting to argue the same point. With the four skier per nation limit the big nations are limited in who they can bring. There are smaller fields packed with athletes from participatory nations. Yet you have to go back Pirmin Zurbriggen in 1988 to find the last time the DH crystal globe winner also won the Olympic DH. Kilde should be the favorite, probably even more than the odds suggest. Yet, we shouldn't be surprised if someone else wins. On a track where the top twenty-two men are separated by less than a second a gust of wind could determine the champion (Let's hope not). Also, depending on what the wind does, this could be an Ester Ledecka situation. The surface is very firm and will not deteriorate for later runners. In fact, in both training runs the top 10 is full of high bib numbers.
Sources
Men's OWG DH Training Run Results
Course POV - Skier Marc Berthod (geolocked outside the US)
The Start List
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