If we're going to do this, let's do it right. Of course the TL;DR for the women's alpine combined (AC) is this is Shiffrin's race to lose. But given how her games has gone to this point, maybe a deeper dive is warranted.
Below is a table of the top competitors' time differentials in Beijing and the 2021 World Championships plus AC results for results from World Championship and the last Olympics. Shiffrin elected to rest after her super-g victory and didn't ski the AC at the 2019 World Championships.
Here are the most recent World Cup AC results. The only World Cup AC she's raced this Olympic cycle is the Zauchensee result you see below (she DNF'd the speed portion).
Course Info
As I noted in the men's preview, the ratio of the length of the DH portion relative to SL is key to whether speed athletes can be competitive. We know from the AC training run that they're running the full length women's DH course which is about 1 minute and 34 seconds in length. The SL runs were about 52 seconds. That's too long for the AC, I'd hope to see the SL portion shortened by about 10 seconds.
Two things to note:
Shiffrin was 0.80 faster in AC training than she was in the actual DH. The DH was held right after the big snowfall, so either Shiffrin had a great training run or the course has sped up. I think it's more likely the course has sped up, that's advantage speed skiers.
The snow condition for yesterday's men's SL was interesting. I thought the sound of the snow was noticeably different and didn't that same squeaky sound we've been hearing all games. The guys on the NBC broadcast said the course crew had tried to "recondition" it. The surface also appeared to be less consistent, ruts developed and were an issue (it wasn't bulletproof). It's something to keep an eye on today and probably again benefits speed specialists.
DH Course Name: Rock
Course Designer: Swiss legend Bernhard Russi, snow guru Tommy "Cowboy" Johnston
Start Altitude: 2,179m
Finish Altitude: 1,285m
Vertical Drop: 894m
Course Name: Ice River
Course Designer: Swiss legend Bernhard Russi, snow guru Tommy "Cowboy" Johnston
Start Altitude: 1,712m
Finish Altitude: 1,501m
Vertical Drop: 211m
Can Win
Shiffrin - Barring a DNF, she should win. She's been the downhill track four times now and seems to be getting faster. Of the other SL skiers, Holdener has been consistently slower than her in speed on this DH track. Gisin is a threat, but Shiffrin beat her by a full second in the AC training run after being 0.28 seconds behind in the final DH training run. I think Gisin would have to be ahead by at least 0.5 second going into the SL. Shiffrin demolished the field last year at World Championships by 0.86 seconds, but that was with a SG speed leg.
Gisin - Can win! Remember, she is the reigning gold medalist from PyeongChang, Shiffrin was second. How did she do it? She put a second and a half into Shiffrin in the speed leg. She's skiing well at these games, already with a bronze from the super-g. Gisin is a big event skier. I think she's going to ski well and put the pressure on Shiffrin.
Podium Threats
Holdener - Hasn't been fast enough in China on the long skis to compete for the top step, but she already won bronze in the SL at these games. So if she can stay in touch in the speed portion she should be the favorite for the bronze in this race.
Brignone - Skied so poorly in DH training that she didn't make the start for the actual race. Did race the SL and was a DNF2. In the first run she was 2.24 seconds off the lead. I don't like her chances today.
Siebenhofer - Has been skiing well in speed all season. She was 12th in the Olympic DH, which was probably a mild disappointment. If you look at the numbers she's a surprisingly decent SL skier. If everything breaks right for her she could fight for bronze.
Curtoni - Was 5th in the Olympic DH and finished just off the podium in 4th last year in the AC at World Championships in Cortina. Appears to be serviceable on the short skis. She probably needs to put 2 seconds on at least one of the SL specialists to have a chance at the podium.
In With A Shout
Remme & Ledecka - Crazier things have happened!
Facts & Trivia
Shiffrin can become the first American woman to win gold in the Olympic combined.
Gisin/Holdener can help the Swiss set the record for most alpine gold medals won in a single games (4 is the current record).
The Start List
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