This race is about two opposing facts: Sofia Goggia hasn't lost a downhill race in which she's crossed the finish line since Val d'Isere in 2020 (she was 2nd that day). Goggia crashed hard less than a month ago in the SG in Cortina, injuring her left knee and sustaining multiple injuries (partial ACL tear, small fibular fracture). It's been miraculous to see how well she's skied in the training runs, but today we find out if she's able to find that final gear.
Course Info
On the 13th, the Yanqing Alpine area received about 20cm of fresh snow. It's said this is the largest snowfall the area has seen in eight years! There was a very firm surface underneath and course workers have done an excellent job of clearing snow. Nevertheless, the course looked to be a little soft in parts in yesterday's final training. That said, higher bibs were able to turn in decent times yesterday and the surface should be even firmer today.
The course is situated in the Xiaohaituo Mountain Area in northwest Yanqing about 100km northwest of Beijing in the Yanqing District which is sandwiched between the Yellow Sea and the Gobi Desert.
Course Name: Rock
Course Designer: Swiss legend Bernhard Russi
Snow Guru: Tommy "Cowboy' Johnston
Start Altitude: 2,050m / 6,726 ft
Finish Altitude: 1,285m /4,216 ft
Vertical Drop: 765m/ 2510 ft
It'll be very cold again today (-22C) with very light snow overnight giving way to partial sun as the day progresses. Wind could be an issue, but is expected to calm by race time.
Course Characteristics/Who Does It Favor?
There are two critical sections. On top we have the right footed turn that takes skiers onto the saddle jump. The gate underneath is blind and many skiers have had major problems finding direction and several racers have DNF'd. On the bottom it's the banked right footer at the bottom of Haituo Bowl. This turn gives you racers the speed they'll take onto the course's primary gliding section (Canyon) and down to the finish line. Goggia is fortunate, the two critical turns on this course are right footers.
"The Rock" course has thus far produced some really exciting racing and hasn't produced any fluky podiums. The Canyon section is long enough to make it difficult for all-arounders to be competitive (Brignone, Shiffrin). One wonders whether there's too much flat for Gut-Behrami to reach the top step.
The Favorites
Sofia Goggia - Goggia was 4th in the final training and perhaps most importantly has looked comfortable and fluid at speed. As mentioned above, she's been absolutely dominant when healthy. She's won 8 DHs in a row going back to December '20 when she crosses the finish line.
Corinne Suter - Suter was 16th in training. She won the most recent World Cup DH in Garmisch and is the only athlete to beat Goggia in the last two seasons (Val d'Isere Dec. '20). She's also reigning DH World Champion.
Lara Gut-Behrami - Seems to be the skier to collect victories when Goggia is injured. She won in Zauchensee when Goggia crashed out and had two DH victories in Val di Fassa after Goggia's knee injury last year. We know she's been on fire at these Games, but she was very slow in yesterday's training, 33rd with a missed gate. I think she can dial it up on race day, but I think the bottom flat eliminates her from contention for the top step.
Weidle & Mowinckel - Both looked really sharp in yesterday's training. They both knifed the left footer into Haitou Bowl and carried speed around the big right footer that brings you onto the flats. As a result, they were first and second from the last intermediate to the finish. This was the critical are in the men's race and I think it could be predictive for the women as well. Weidle has been coming on in the last month (2nd Zauchensee, 4th Garmisch) and won the silver medal at World Champs last season. We know Mowinckel is a gamer and has already posted strong results at these Games (5th GS, 6th SG).
The Austrians (Puchner & Siebenhofer) - Puchner was 10th yesterday and super fast on the flats despite pulling up before the finish. After starting the year with a 3rd place finish in Lake Louise, Puchner has kept the DH results rolling all season and added another podium in Val d'Isere and two more top 10s. Siebenhofer was 13th yesterday and not particularly fast in any section, but she also seemed to be one of the women who wasn't really pushing. I expect her to perform as Mayer did on the men's side. She'll bring it on race day. Siebenhofer has two podiums and four top fives this DH season.
Don't Sleep On
Nadia Delago - Although Delago missed the gate below the saddle jump yesterday, she was fast (6th).
Marie Michele Gagnon - Had great direction on the saddle jump and carried speed all the way to the bottom in finishing 5th in training. She's also gliding surprisingly well. Did she get some intel from Travis Ganong?
Ester Ledecka - Missed a gate yesterday but was fast. We know she knows how to bring it for the big races.
Shiffrin & Co.
Mikaela goes bib #12. She had an amazing recovery and managed to be fast going super direct off the saddle jump (and getting big air), but I think the canyon section is too much for her. Jackie Wiles looks to be in the best form since her big crash in Garmisch and goes #30. Wilkinson & Cashman go 21 & 26 respectively.
Predictions
I don't know how it's possible, but Goggia's knee seems very functional. From what I've seen, I think if she makes it down she wins. I like Suter of Gut-Behrami and Puchner over Siebenhofer today for the podium. Weidle and Mowinckel are dangerous, real podium threats.
Miscellaneous
Goggia is looking to be only the second repeat DH champion (Seizinger '94 & '98).
Goggia is the only Italian woman to win Olympic DH gold. (Kostner had a silver & two bronze).
Corinne Suter could become the first woman since Lindsey Vonn to hold the DH World Championship and Olympic titles at the same time.
The Austrian, Germans & Swiss have won the women's DH five times each. Will one of the nations take the lead today?
Just as on the men's side, it's the 50th anniversary of Swiss DH success in the Far East (Marie-Therese Nadig). Could Gut-Behrami or Suter win today just as Feuz did?
Lindsey Vonn is the only American woman to win DH gold. Shiffrin could become the second today.
Kerrin Lee-Gartner is the only Canadian woman to win DH gold. Can "Mitch" become the second?
Climate
The winter climate of the region during winter is dominated by semi-permanent high pressure centered over interior Asia. The wintertime climate of Beijing is quite dry. In February, the average precipitation (water equivalent) in Beijing is only 0.19", roughly equivalent to 3 inches of snow. This means Beijing is the first Winter Olympics to rely entirely on man-made snow. In a way this is not a bad setup for ski racing, but there's a catch...just as in PyeongChang, wind!
Sources
Women's OWG DH Training Run Results
Course POV - Skier Marc Berthod (geolocked outside the US)
The Start List
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