Today begins the first round of a blockbuster story that will play out over the next couple weeks: Petra vs. Mikaela! It's going to be fun to watch and I think most media will rightly focus on this storyline. But the truth is, neither Shiffrin or Vlhova are the favorite today. Sara Hector of Sweden, who's dominated women's GS this season is the favorite. But besides men's slalom, women's giant slalom is the most competitive discipline on the World Cup and that means there are still about a half-dozen women who have a real chance at the gold if everything breaks their way.
Course Info
The course is situated in the Xiaohaituo Mountain Area in northwest Yanqing about 100km northwest of Beijing in the Yanqing District which is sandwiched between the Yellow Sea and the Gobi Desert.
Due to covid-19 none of the racers and coaches had seen the venue before last week. But the snow surface created and prepared by Tommy "Cowboy" Johnston is drawing rave reviews from the athletes. In fact, Austrian speed skier Vincent Kriechmayr has said "snow conditions are some of the best I’ve ever seen."
Course Name: Ice River
Course Designer: Swiss legend Bernhard Russi, snow guru Tommy "Cowboy" Johnston
Start Altitude: 1,925m / 6,315 ft
Finish Altitude: 1,501m /4,925 ft
Vertical Drop: 424m/ 1,391 ft
The Course/Start List
By all accounts, Wyoming snow guru Tommy Johnston has done a masterful job. The surface is very firm and will be consistent throughout the start order. It's currently very cold in the Yanqing region so we shouldn't see the surface deteriorate rapidly the way it often does in Europe.
That said, Lara Gut-Behrami has drawn bib 14. She had covid in December and took a prolonged period to produce a negative PCR. As a result, the reigning GS world champion has fallen out of the top group and has drawn bib 14.
Mikaela Shiffrin has drawn bib 7, while Petra Vlhova will go out bib 1. This is the max possible start order difference for skier in the top group. Given the firm and cold conditions it shouldn't matter as much as it would otherwise, but you still have to say advantage Vlhova.
The Favorites
Sara Hector - Hector won the last two World Cup GS races before the Olympics and has won 3 of 6 WC GS races this season. She's been on the podium in every GS this season except for the season opener in Soelden. But just as we discussed with the men's downhill, the last women's GS season globe winner to win Olympic gold was Hanni Wenzel (Tina Weirather's mother) in Lake Placid '84. (P. Zurbriggen '88 was the last time DH crystal globe winner also won the Olympic DH).
Mikaela Shiffrin - Shiffrin won the first two GS races of the season and then got covid prior to the races in Lienz and hasn't been the same GS skier since (7th in Kranjska Gora, 5th in Kronplatz). Shiffrin is the reigning Olympic champion in GS and has three Olympic medals overall.
Tessa Worley - Worley is the only skier to win a GS on the World Cup this year besides Shiffrin and Hector. Albeit, a race that both Shiffrin and Gut-Behrami missed due to covid. Worley was only 7th in the GS, her specialty, in PyeongChang. Although she won gold twice at World Championships, she's yet to earn a medal in four Olympic starts. The surface and conditions suit her today.
Petra Vlhova - Vlhova has yet to win a medal in eight Olympic starts. She's been 2nd twice this season including the most recent World Cup GS in Kronplatz. She's not expected to win this event, so perhaps she'll feel slightly less pressure than the others in this event. I see her as solid for the podium, but perhaps doesn't have the top gear in GS to reach the top step.
The Italians (Bassino & Brignone) - Brignone won Bronze in PyeongChang four years ago but hasn't made a GS podium this season. In an interview in Courchevel she suggested she had a mental block after some DNFs. Similarly Bassino has struggled this season, only two GS podiums, after winning the GS season globe last year. They'll both like this surface.
Lara Gut-Behrami - Gut-Behrami was 2nd in the season opener in Soelden, but has yet to make another GS podium this season. She got covid around Christmas and it's derailed her season a bit. She skipped Kronplatz so her form is a bit of a wildcard. She has a DH bronze in seven Olympic starts. Some additional Olympic hardware is really the final piece of the legacy for her.
Don't Sleep On
Alice Robinson - Still only 20 years old, Robinson has struggled with DNFs this season but might be the fastest GS skier in the world when she's on.
The Field- Women's GS is super competitive. There are probably another dozen women who could make the podium, but I've mentioned everyone above who I think can win.
Outside shot at a podium: Gisin, Mowinckel, Gasienica-Daniel, Siebenhofer
Are There Any Other Americans?
America has the full complement of four skiers competing in today's GS. Nina O'Brien goes bib 21, Paula Moltzan is bib 26 and AJ Hurt will go 31st.
Prediction
I think this race is going to be about nerves. Hector is skiing phenomenally well this year, but she's not accustom to having the bullseye on her back.
Shiffrin has the pressure of being one of the primary faces of these Games both in the US and abroad. She'll want to get off to a good start in the GS as she's announced plans to compete in all five individual alpine events. If things don't go well today, the pressure will really begin to mount.
Gut-Behrami has legacy on the line. With 34 World Cup wins and 8 World Championship medals she already must be counted among the all-time greats. But the missing piece of the puzzle is Olympic gold. In some ways the same can be said for Tessa Worley. She's the third winningest GS racer of all-time and I think she just might take the victory today.
Miscellaneous
Special rule for the Olympics. "Starting order 2nd runs Giant Slalom, Slalom and Alpine Combined - All competitors who complete the 1st run correctly have the right to start in the 2nd run."
Shiffrin is the defending Olympic GS champion from '18. She attempting to become only the second woman to win back-to-back Olympic gold medals in the GS. (Deborah Compagnoni did it in '94 & '98)
Shiffrin currently has three Olympic medals (2 gold). Among Americans only Julia Mancuso (4) and Bode Miller (6) have more. With a win today she can become the winningest American alpine skier of all-time (She's currently tied with Andrea Mead Lawrence & Ted Ligety who also have two gold medals).
GS was first contested at the Oslo games in 1952.
America has won the women's GS gold four times, more than any other nation. (Shiffrin, Mancuso, D. Armstrong & Mead-Lawrence).
Bassino/Brignone is trying to become the second Italian woman to win the Olympic GS (Compagnoni '94 & '98).
Sara Hector is trying to become the fourth Swedish woman to win Olympic alpine gold and the second to win Olympic gold in the GS (P. Wiberg '92).
Weather
The winter climate of the region during winter is dominated by semi-permanent high pressure centered over interior Asia. The winter climate of Beijing is quite dry. In February, the average precipitation (water equivalent) in Beijing is only 0.19", roughly equivalent to 3 inches of snow. This means Beijing is the first Winter Olympics to rely entirely on man-made snow. It's also very cold, temperatures are forecast to be in the negative teens Celsius (single digits Fahrenheit) through next week. While winds are a fact of life in the region, wind shouldn't impact the GS nearly as much as the downhill.
The Start List
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